Residents express early hesitation about value of Bay Area housing bond

Tiburon Peninsula and other Southern Marin residents expressed concern last week that a $20 billion Bay Area bond measure for affordable housing may be hamstrung by high construction costs and provide a taxpayer subsidy for higher-income households.

Read complete local election coverage at thearknewspaper.com/election2024

An Aug. 5 online workshop about the bond for Southern Marin residents was followed by a general countywide session on Aug. 8. They kicked off a series of virtual and in-person events and an online survey this month to discuss the nine-county measure on the November ballot and gather input on what Marin and its 11 cities and towns — including Tiburon and Belvedere — should do with their share of $699 million over 10 years if it passes.

Those attending the sessions generally agreed that more affordable housing is necessary. Tiburon resident David Anderson said Aug. 5 that there are enough fancy houses on the town’s hills and that more should be done for lower-income people, such as teachers.

“There has to be ways for folks to not travel from Sonoma County just because they are teaching our children math,” he said, adding that it is not sustainable to have two-thirds of the county workforce living elsewhere.

Anderson said his daughter is a doctor who is priced out of Marin and that hospitals are having a difficult time hiring physicians due to the high cost of living.

The Bay Area Housing Finance Authority, established in 2019 and currently operating on state grants for pilot programs and staff, says 47% of Bay Area renters spend more than 30% of their income on rent, contributing to a population of some 37,000 unhoused in 2022 and forcing people to commute long distances, straining families and worsening traffic congestion and pollution.

To meet demand and create affordability, California regulators have tasked local governments to plan for 253,000 new homes that are affordable to lower and moderate incomes through 2031 — from accessory dwelling units to duplexes and multifamily buildings — with about 2,250 of these assigned to unincorporated Marin County, such as in Strawberry, plus about 400 to Tiburon and 100 to Belvedere.

The finance authority says its current funding levels will allow it to build and preserve about 71,000 total affordable homes across the entire region over the next 15 years. But the bond measure, which would be funded with a new tax of $19 per $100,000 in assessed property value, would allow the authority to more than double that to 143,000, mostly with the use of low-cost loans.

Anderson and Strawberry resident Bruce Corcoran were skeptical of the figures, however, saying their biggest concern was construction costs. Anderson said that spreading out the funds over a decade won’t get very far in building new units or creating affordability.

“I’m not sure this is going to work,” Corcoran added.

District 3 Supervisor Stephanie Moulton-Peters, who represents Southern Marin, said by email that the funding would be “a major increase over what is currently available.”

“In my community, I’ve heard a lot about the need for housing for local workforce, particularly people who are considered extremely low income,” said Moulton-Peters, who sits on the 21-member finance authority board, which also meets as the Metropolitan Transportation Commission. “(The funding) will not solve all of our affordable-housing needs, but will be an important tool.”

However, some residents also questioned the definition of “affordable.”

In Marin, the median income for a single person is $130,600, or $186,600 for a family of four, meaning low-income residents can earn up to $104,500 for a single person or $149,300 for a family of four, or rent of up to $3,732.50. Further, affordable housing in the Bay Area includes moderate incomes of 120% of the median — or up to $156,700 for a single person, $223,900 for a family of four, for rent of up to $5,597.50.

Corcoran said taxpayer funding to support those with such high salaries was “ridiculous.”

“Aren’t we really talking about subsidized housing?” he said.

Residents including Sara Robinson of Age Friendly Marin said she’s worried about seniors being able to age in place, while Barbara Bogard of Mill Valley argued the focus of the measure should be on those who make the lowest incomes, including younger people, and that the broad definition of affordable means less will be done for those most in need.

“The Marin population is already incredibly old,” she said. “If younger people can’t live in Marin, that’s not sustainable.”

During the Aug. 8 general session, Gail Napell of San Rafael also worried that the cost of housing is driving a lack of diversity.

“Our concern is that this unaffordability is creating a population with limited diversity — race, culture, income, age and ability,” she said. “I know there are some residents who love this, but we don’t.”

County assessor-recorder data show the median single-family home price in Marin was $1.66 million in 2023, which would require income of about $433,000 a year, or nearly 2½ times the county’s median income to afford mortgage payments. In Tiburon the median home price was $3.59 million last year, $5.08 million in Belvedere, requiring respective incomes of $938,000 and $1.33 million, or five and seven times the county median, to buy a home.

A survey of the 19 participants in Napell’s session showed 65% wanted the bond funds to prioritize low-income housing, with 15% wanting to prioritize very-low-income housing — for income of less than $65,300 for an individual or $93,300 for a family of four — and 15% wanting to prioritize median-income housing.

Under the measure, 80% of funds, or $16 billion, would be returned to the county of origin for local use while up to 20%, or $4 billion, would be used to create a new regional affordable-housing program administered by the finance authority.

Expenditures would be reviewed by a new Citizen Bond Oversight Committee. Some 52% of all funds, or $10.4 billion, would be required to go toward construction of new homes that are deed-restricted for lower-income households, which includes low, very-low and extremely low incomes. Officials estimate this will be about 36,000 units to serve the homeless and essential workers — such as cooks, dishwashers and janitors making as little as $30,000 a year — to seniors on fixed incomes, veterans and people with disabilities.

Some 15%, or $3 billion, must be used to provide developers and land trusts with funds to preserve affordable housing by buying and rehabilitating existing housing and ensuring they remain deed-restricted to low- and moderate-income groups, estimated at about 14,000 units. Funds could be used to acquire, rehabilitate and preserve existing affordable units or other units from the private market, including residential hotels.

The remaining third, about $6.6 billion, would be reserved for flexible funds to either create or preserve an estimated 22,000 homes, alongside housing-related infrastructure, based on public input and local priorities.

That figure also includes 5% of the total bond, or $1 billion, that’s required to be used for tenant protections, such as legal services, counseling, renter education, emergency rent assistance, relocation assistance, homelessness prevention and information tracking. However, the state Constitution currently bars bond funds from being used for those purposes, so to create the tenant program, another proposition to amend the Constitution would also need to be put on a ballot and approved by voters.

Passing the Bay Area bond initiative in November has its own hurdles. It would normally require a two-thirds vote, but a partner initiative on the statewide ballot, Proposition 5, would amend the California Constitution to reduce the supermajority requirement to 55% for bonds for affordable housing and public-infrastructure projects, the same as for public school bonds. If the amendment proposition passes, the Bay Area measure would need only the lower approval threshold.

Marin’s Countywide Steering Committee, made up of public officials including Tiburon Director of Community Development Dina Tasini, will come up with a plan on how to use the allotted funding based on community and stakeholder feedback.

The final general online session is set for 6-7 tonight, Aug. 14, while a community-focused in-person event for Southern Marin is 6-7 p.m. Aug. 26 at the Mill Valley Community Center. Event details and a resident survey are posted to the county’s dedicated website at marinhousingbond.org.

The steering committee will then present the plan for public comment at a Board of Supervisors prior to the November election and, if the measure passes, all nine counties will present and adopt the final expenditure plans by February.

Tasini said there are no specific projects identified yet in Tiburon, but she “would like to see projects that align with our certified housing element” for 2023-2031.

Moulton-Peters said she “would like to see projects that align with local community need, for example housing for older adults and local workforce.”

Leelee Thomas, deputy director of Marin’s Housing & Grants Division, also said no specific projects have been identified but that the initial expenditure plan will be for a five-year period, with annual opportunities to make amendments. Thomas, who also sits on the finance authority’s advisory board, said she expects the first tranche of funds would be available for use in the third quarter of 2025.

Reach Belvedere, Strawberry and public-safety reporter Naomi Friedland at 415-944-4627. Reach Executive Editor Kevin Hessel at 415-435-2652. Support local journalism and SUBSCRIBE NOW for home delivery and access to the digital replica.

Comment on this article on Nextdoor.